Effective Odds Explained
Written By: Stefan Rave
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Most poker players understand the concept of pot odds, and after playing or discussing poker for a little while, the idea behind implied odds becomes clear as well. A concept that is just as important but is not often discussed as thoroughly is the idea of effective odds. Math is a key element in to benefit from the odds and you will have a huge advantage over less math-oriented opponent. Pot Odds and Implied Odds
The simplest mathematical concept to understand in poker is probably that of pot odds. Pot odds is just the ratio of the bet to the size of the pot. If its $20 to call and the pot is $120, you are getting 120-to-20 or 6-to-1 pot odds.
Implied odds factors in what you may win on later streets. If its $20 to call into a pot of $120, but your aggressive opponent has another $1000 in his stack, you may feel that he will call up to $200 more if you have the best hand on the turn or river. In this case you are getting implied odds of $320-to-$20, or 16-to-1, which seriously widens the range of calling hands.
Effective Odds
Effective odds are essentially the converse of implied odds (not to be confused with reverse implied odds). Implied odds tell you how much you can make if you see the hand to the river, while effective odds tell you how much the hand may cost you if you see the hand all the way to the river.
Example of Effective Odds
Let’s say you are in a no limit game with $500. You hold Ah Kh and the board is 5h 6h Qc. There is $120 in the pot and someone bets $100 into you. You must now consider whether to call $100 to win $220. This represents pot odds of about 2.2-to-1. Since your odds of making a flush by the river are roughly 2-to-1, you may consider this a correct call, especially if you think you have implied odds.
However, there is a good chance that if you call and the turn is not a heart, the opponent will put you all-in. Therefore even though you are 2-to-1 to make your hand if you make it to the river, your effective odds are really 4-to-1, because if you don’t hit on the next card, you will not be getting correct odds to see the last card.
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